Let’s Buy a Boat

Ahead of the weekend, I'm going on a boat.

Recommendation: Buy Pangaea Logistics (PANL) shares at market price, currently around $4.59. Set your stop at $4.21 (2x ATR $0.38).

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Dear Fellow Insider,

Markets are clawing back after a messy 24 hours. The S&P 500 is right back at 6,000 after briefly slipping below on yesterday’s Trump–Musk dust-up. The VIX is back down to 16.93, the lowest level since March. Energy leads early, up 1.57%, followed by communication services, discretionary, and tech.

If you avoided direct exposure to Tesla or anything pinned too closely to it, this pullback was more of a quick shakeout than anything else. Bitcoin has already pushed back above $105,000. We’ll see if tensions cool heading into the weekend, but as of this morning, the lesson was clearly buy the dip.

We’re still keeping a close eye on the 6,000 level. It’s been a magnet for volatility lately. Every time we get near this number, something shows up — headlines, breakdowns, or reversals. At this point, I just assume what’s coming.

Trade around it until it breaks.

Insiders Aren’t Buying It

Insider sentiment continues to trend lower. We’re back near the lowest buy-to-sell ratio we’ve seen all year, a level we last hit during blackout season in February. But this isn’t a blackout. This is just a lot of selling and not much buying.

We logged just $2 million in insider purchases on Wednesday versus $1.1 billion in sales. That includes a $600 million block from Carrier Global, which skewed the ratio sharply, but the broader trend still holds. Buying remains sporadic, while selling has accelerated coming out of earnings.

Our buy/sell ratio has drifted toward its lower bound, and we’re watching that closely. It’s rare to see muted insider activity without some structural constraint. This is why we use moving averages to track insider buying activity. The five-day average, shown in blue on the chart, can spike or collapse based on one outsized day, like we're seeing now.

But those extremes often disappear the next day as the window shifts. The 22-day average, in green, gives a better read on the trend. And right now, it’s sitting at the low end of its range.

That’s notable. We’d usually expect these kinds of dips during earnings blackouts, when insider activity is limited. But there’s no blackout right now. This is just a lack of buying interest, which tells us a lot about sentiment at current prices.

Looking at the top insider buys over the last 10 days, you can see it’s feast or famine.

TKO Group is at the top of the list, which shows a $500 million purchase, but that’s just a $250 million buy filed twice. Then you’ve got Toyota’s $250 million strategic investment in Joby Aviation, which helped push the stock above its 20-day moving average and gave us a clearer read on support around the $5 level.

Golub Capital had $91 million in filings, but that was more of a reallocation than fresh buying. Steve Mnuchin put $48 million into Lionsgate, which got some attention. The $28 million buy-in Solésence looks like shares moving between funds rather than new money coming in.

Beyond that, the list drops off fast. The rest of the top 10 are all under $5 million. That’s the problem. We’ve had a few headline prints, but the day-to-day has been quiet. It’s part of why the ratio looks so bad right now—sporadic buying against a consistent, steady selling level.

Turning to the portfolio.

Energy is leading the charge today, which is helping our Occidental Petroleum (OXY) position. We sold the June 21 $47.50 call for $0.37, and the option is now trading near a nickel. There’s no need to close it—we’ll let it expire and keep the full credit. That would bring our total cost basis down to $45.69.

It’s been a long road on this one. After the initial November entry failed, we clawed our way back by selling premium, booking credits of $0.90, $1.60, $1.33, and $2.31 across multiple rounds. If we keep this final $0.37, we’ll have recovered nearly 20% in income, leaving us just 6.4% underwater on the shares with OXY trading at $42.75 today. Not a win yet, but we’ve turned a bad entry into a manageable position, and we still like the setup long term.

KKR & Co (KKR) is holding up well. Shares are about 0.75% above the 20-day. We’re seeing mixed insider activity here, with some selling by the co-chairmen and large buys from directors. We still like this space as private capital finds new ways to flow onshore. The capital cycle is starting to turn.

Joby Aviation (JOBY) is volatile, as expected, but we’ve got a rising 20-day and 50-day, and Toyota’s additional $250 million investment has created a clear support level around $5. If we get a complex pullback before the expiration of July, we’ll revisit whether we want to own the stock outright around our net basis of $6.85. For now, the trade is doing what we expected.

Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) is steady. The MS India fund (IIF) is gaining ground again—it is now up 3.5% and trading at $27.19. Golub (GBDC) and Blue Owl (OBDC) are holding firm. We’ve stopped Blue Owl at $14.06, using 2x ATR from our entry at $14.58.

Taking the PANL Trade

We put Pangaea Logistics (PANL) on the watchlist back on May 4. The insider buying from Strategic Shipping was already notable, but we haven’t pushed the trade yet.

At the time, PANL was still trading below its 20-day moving average, and the trendline was sloping downward. We didn’t have confirmation, and there wasn’t much urgency to force the setup. But now, the technicals are turning in our favor. The 20-day and 50-day SMAs are both rising, and PANL has held above its 20-day line for the last few weeks.

Strategic Shipping continues to buy. Their latest Form 4 filings show over $1 million in additional purchases in late May and early June, pushing their total ownership to 18.8 million shares. That’s a strong signal. They already own more than a quarter of the company, and they’re still adding. There was one director who sold $50,000 in shares.

SSI merged with PANL last year, bringing 15 handy-size vessels and deep industry experience. They’re not just investors—they’re insiders with operational control. Two of their people sit on PANL’s board. Another, Dan Schildt, now serves as Chief Strategy Officer. This is a true inside-out transformation of the company.

And the timing could work in our favor.

Shipping names may start to heat up in the summer. The Trump administration is targeting October port taxes meant to bolster domestic shippers. That could put a bid under dry bulk rates heading into Q3, with PANL as a clear beneficiary.

Action to Take: Buy Pangaea Logistics (PANL) shares at market price, currently trading around $4.59. Set your stop at $4.21, based on 2x ATR ($0.38). That gives the trade enough room to work without getting shaken out on normal volatility.

Enjoy your weekend. We’ll be back next week with more ideas and opportunities to keep rebuilding the portfolio, one position at a time.

Until then...

Stay positive,

Garrett Baldwin